
David Buffalo swings into Wednesday
David Buffalo, The Buffalo Trader, joins VInce. Vince starts off talking about trade execution and why it is vital to successful trading. Without direct access, you will have a hard time getting limit order filled. Depending on the size, you will buy at different prices for the total order. David notes that 90% chance high is in first hour. Then wait for pullback.
Vince notes that there are alot of moving parts to successful trading systems. Once you get it right, it looks easy. Make sure there is a good option hedge to an investment. You can use a stop if not able to setup a hedge. David explains how he uses stops. Very interesting discussion on how this is done. Bad news may blow past your stop. Could buy a put option to protect to the downside. Be careful of chasing yield here. To ensure you get out have to use stop market. David looks for value to ensure bad news does not wipe out the stock price.David explains why to take control of your investments. David is expecting mild correction. BMY may retest 26.50. Large pharma will be last group to rally.
Oliver joins for the weekly update
Oliver Juergens joins Vince to update us on the past week and what to expect next. Oliver confirms the April target. Would take major change to change now. Oliver explains the OEX put/calll ratio and the plain put/call ratio. OEX is directly corelated to a rise in the market. OEX is the pro guage. Pros buying calls. Vince talks about hedging in the next 6 months. Top in April-June. Institutional money flows have slowed. Sentiment shows large number of neutral investors. May drive bullish trend. Gold and silver up next. Sugar and inflation in India are discussed. Coffee market has lots of turmoil over the next 6 to 12 months. Natural gas has oversupply. Close to long term value level.
Oliver explains how to analyze when a pivot day has occured. Euro is in counter-reaction. Hanging at 1.35. Uptrend in long term for the dollar. Yen sell off in conjunction with bonds. Key info is when Fed raises rates. Oliver expects May/June. Equities have high in May. Selloff in summer. Financials, gold miners, internet retail, and tech. Negative real interest rate scenario driving investment choices. Discussion of Internet retailing and AMZN. Monday indicator(retail) making new high in investment and Friday indicator(pros) made new high 10 months ago. Government debt especially Japan is a bigger problem than Greece. UK has major problems ahead. China and India will be the big news in this decade.
Keith Fitz_Gerald on the future
China is for real. The rest of the world is tied to their growth. Plenty of great companies on the SP500 get 40% of their revenue from overseas. Most nations have 100 to 200 cycles that is why history is important. World is coming to terms with derivatives. Keith explains how to live through this change and prosper. This crisis is about too much money. Derivatives are not treated as assets or liabilities on the balance sheets. This encourages disfunctional investing. Long energy and commodities. Large international companies. With rates low, market has incentive to go higher. Going higher on declining volume.
Keith explains moneymorning.com and the benefit of reading. Keith comments on the political tone-deafness of the central bankers of the world. You have to make decisons based on the best available information. URX is discussed. Bubble gum is a term for how did we all get stuck here. Keith recalls several recent bubbles and bailouts. Too much liquidity, lack of regulation in credit industry, no transparency in complex financial instruments. The reason for oil investments is explored. Sector rotation is up next. Increases in taxes and interest rates. Euro and the future options are explored. Contrarian strategies can be profitable or stupid. Self management of investment is a trend that will accelerate.
Vince talks with MSGT Claudia Weir of the US Air Force Academy Band. Check the website for upcoming dates in Texas. Free tickets are available for the Bass Hall seats. Varied types of music will be played.Richard Brady from the Loss Recovery Center. Vince gets an update on SEC litigation. Money makes people do dumb things. Richard has called a psychologist to explain behaviour. Nest egg recovery from investment advisors who may have invested their clients money improperly. Suitability is based on net worth, ability to understand the risks. These risks must be clear and cogent. Must be right for that person. Alternative investment label is a red flag in itself. Auction rate securities were sold as CD alternatives. They froze up and locked up peoples IRA. Life settlements get the once over.
Richard from lossrecoverycenter.com continues his expose on the latest misfits in the investment world. Some red flags: regular statements?, writing checks to the wrong company?, handwritten receipts?, special deals outside of the broker?, excessive trading?. Do not be afraid to ask. Extensive discussion of private equity deals. Understand the motivation of the advisor. Get a second opinion. Be careful of affinity fraud, like Madoff did. Biggest frauds by church members.Size of firms is not a function of size.
Oliver joins for a peak at the PearlFisher newsletter. More confirmation of positions. Next six weeks could see accleration of trend. Oil breaking to upside to accelerate inflationary trend. Coming up on top of trading range. Sugar has found bottom. Not in portfolio because gold, oil, and small caps are better plays. Main theme negative real interest rates. Fed stops buying end of March. Once they stop will have selloff in bonds. Euro to 1.40 and then retreat. Calm weekend. Record winter this year has impacted retail sales.
Bill Brinson on bonds and options
Bill updates on the demand for bonds. Volume highest in 20 years. Get several bids. 1/8 point is fair spread. Bill points out that there is no electronic market for bonds so price discovery is hard. Vince points out that bonds as an investment is complex. Pricing of bonds in the market depends on the name. Vince relates details on a GS trade. They discuss the benefits of using seasonality to forecast prices. FAS gets a review by Bill. Triple up/Triple down. Up/down 20% on 2 weeks. WFC had minimal exposure to the market crisis. Vince extends offer to review bond portfolio. Bill explains how to use TBT to hedge long term bond portfolios.
Bill discusses how to trade with options.Uses LEAPS to enter the instrument before had the cash. Long is defined as 60 days or more. VIX is low so premiums are lower. Bill has both puts and calls now. Need to fully understand the Greeks before trading. Last two weeks before expiration are best for short term money. Bill is using them for extra income. Could double the annual dividend. Mathematics can get intense if you let it. Keep it simple and match your needs. Do not forget you are trading the underlying. Work with the trend using options.
Vince announces a Houston event later in March. Check back for firm details.
David swings into Wednesday
David is talking advanced trading tactics. David and his model are showing HITK with $3.65 profit for $1 loss. CarMax(KMX) is showing similar returns. David will be using options to trade these patterns. David also looks for good fundamentals. Vince comments that some folks where trading a pattern trap. DTV comes up next. David mentions that folks were trying to trade the breakout. Showing perfect Garltley pattern. Did not meet entry criteria.
Vince relates a busted trade this morning due to the Internet line being down. Plan for contingencies. David relates why the cost of infrastucture is necessary. He lost his hard drive last month. He had backups and so no major damage. Listen for tips on backups. Vince and David discuss options and how to trade. Market is subject to manipulaton. Neural nets are showing some action in the telecoms.
Oliver updates on the coming week
Oliver and Vince discuss interest rates and the impact on bonds. May have a counter trend rally in the summer. Oil has high intraday trading range. Seasonality is over and then a turning point in oil and the Euro.
Oliver discusses the effect from going positive on the Year to Date return. Institutions are forced to participate in the market. Consumer confidence is an important indicator of consumer spending. Has been going sideways. Stocks and consumer confidence should move in tandem, they are not now. Oil is sitting on 50 and 100 day moving average. Next week may see support for the euro. Stocks are up next. Negative real interest rates encourages M&A activity and small caps. Small caps should outperform in the short term. Retail Food stocks have broken out. Cyclical stocks are outperforming. Boost from pent up demand this winter. NEM will benefit here. Semis and tech stocks are favored here. Dollar vs Euro has strong support at 1.35.Up leg for the next couple of months.






