Michael Cox thinks uncertainty from monetary policy. The real economy is strong but the other side is government debt. Michael calls this a Kryptonite economy. Keynsian policies give government more of a role than the capitalist economy would normally allow. In the last thirty years, free markets were working, now the pendulum swings back to a control economy. BPO India website shows the impact of internet on outsourcing labor. AOL.com on Wednesday, ran story from Michael about the strength of the middle class. (mp3)

Michael continues explaining that the credit crunch occured at time where structural changes were occuring. Unemployment by sectors indicates that some problems are not related to the business cycle. Power plants operators have .3% unemployment rate. Clergy is .4%. Vince points out that innovation is the key to growth. Michael is a professor at SMU and relates what he is seeing in his students. Future indicates that creating companies is the future for young Americans. Olivers joins to wrap up the week. Michael is looking for panic before turn around. Pattern from 2007 indicates couple of more days of downside. Oliver points about the impact of the carry trade. Both agree that Japan has some major issues into next decade. (mp3)

David shares his goals for 2010.  Trying to take profits when tell are available during the day. David provides additional detail using his cfgmo indicator. STEC showed on neural nets. David expects rally to fill gap at 18. Second target is 20. Next stop 23.  (mp3)

Vince updates on Feb 25 meeting in DFW with Michael Cox and Jack Bouroudjian.. Vince talks about last two showing on the screen. TEVA up to 57 yesterday. David did not enter the trade. Target of 62 in next several weeks. Sector is showing several candidates. PFE showed on the screens as well. MDRX has decent symmetry for A-B and C-D legs. CTSH showing great win/loss ratio. Utilities sector is showing several candidates. Complete list is available at David’s blog. (mp3)

Oliver checks in to update us on the market. Bond market oliver discusses AAII survey of where investors are putting their money. Survey show 24% of portfolio in bonds. This is a 20 year high. Very high exposure could be problems in next few years. ISM report rose from 61.5 to 70. Therefore deflation at bay till the summer. Commodities are spiking in reaction to inflation fears. Oliver reviews his forecast from yesterday for wheat and sugar. Today might mark the turnaround for these areas. Oil has crossed key resistance at 77. Seasonal low in February with rise to $100. Gold in euro terms nothing happened. If breakout in euro terms, will cause dollar weakness. Vince mentions that inverse relation with the market is not holding. Oliver points out that major driver for gold is negative real interest rates. (mp3)

Vince talks about the PT Barnum award. Oliver got the chance to watch Jim Cramer. He had to be reminded that is entertainment. Maybe Cramer is reaching people who would not normally listen to finance news. Oliver updates on equities. Watch out for 90% up volume day. Would be bullish for next few months. Employment data may delay the rally. Japan’s problems with bonds is highlighted and discussed in the context of too big to fail. Vince discusses what the best time of day to be trading. Vince discusses people who didn’t shift out of Lehman. Why take the risk? (mp3)

May have a winner on the ticket.

Oliver updates on euro/dollar. Corn and wheat are showing bottoming action. Lumber had big spike today. Homebuilders are at resistance. Could break out soon. Time for them to move. Natural gas jumped today as well. Platnuim is early indicator for gold. Outlook projects runup till May. Vince relates story of guest who stated he was never wrong, listen to the results. (mp3)

Bill Brinson joins Vince to discuss the origin of Taylor Stevens. Real estate and bonds are discussed. Bill talks about the opportunities from the early 90s. Invested  in MBNA and held trade for 10 years for big gains. Bill uses the PearlFisher newsletter. Sticks to basic trades to reduce complexity and therefore reduce risk. Uses options as hedges, selling naked puts as opposed to covered calls. Bill highlights the risk from lack of job creation. Recounts the inflation in the 80s. Economy needs 1M houses per year, now at 500K. FAX is Australian fund for cash management. Great discussion on risk management. (mp3)

Winning number is 367597

Matthew Klein joins Vince and updates on the Lossy award. The Lossy award got two nominations It highlights a very interesting trader problem - admitting you are wrong. This is one you need to listen too. Collective2 now has over 10,000 systems. Matthew has updated the site to better understand it’s purpose. Matthew has found that the magic is in having a strategy and executing when signalled. Market are very effecient so a winning system will slowly decline as others exploit the opportunity. Signals from Collective2 can be autotraded thru several brokerages. Matthew latest technology does not require your computer to be on all the time. (mp3)

Oliver joins for the second half. Oliver expecting bounce next week. Will continue until early May. European markets were up today and Oliver felt may trigger US prices. Big picture forecast still in place. Had expected 10% decline in January, now at 7%. Worrys are high P/E on ten year basis, will have to decline. Sentiment indices are at extreme levels. Big support for Euro dollar at 1.34 sith sideways movement in 2H10. Low for commodities maybe next week. Seasonal low in February for Oil. Sugar fundamentals say higher. Inventories putting pressure on copper. Lumber early indicator for housing. Watch for breakout above $260. (mp3)

Winning number is 367497

David and Vince discuss the current state of the market. David has heard going to 4000 and breaking out at the other end. Earnings will determine the size of the correction. Range of 15% to 20%. SP at 930. Example in 1990 was 38% correction from fear driven selling. Inflation may rise with rise in economy. You need a plan in place before the market moves. Vince highlights how important validating that your patterns still work. David reinforces how important risk management is when using your systems. Drawdowns can exceed 50%. At some point, you have to preserve your capital and profit. Be safe, make money. (mp3)

David reviews AAPL prospects for IPad. Feels like price still too high, will wait for next version. Probably not a major impact on revenue. Wireless phone service from ATT gets the once over. Lack of infrastructure seems to be the problem. Neural nets are highlighting ASIA. Forecast shows rise from $24 to $37. TIN(Temple Inland) is showing a possible entry in the next week. Rally to $22 within the next 2 weeks. Possible run to $27. Vince looking at DNR. David says wait for the momentum to turn. Review of last week’s picks. TAO fell apart because of interest rates. INFA may show another buy signal. TEF broke down as well. CNL and DUK are sloppy according to David. (mp3)

Winning number 367537

Oliver talks about the weekly PearlFisher update. Indicators last week prompted hedge position. Minor correction bottom next week. Outlook predicted up market until summer, then down. Last week high volume and  volatility. Friday was 90% day which has high correlation to turnaround. High sentiment numbers will decline in next 2 weeks. Indicators are moving into preferred territory. Bonds exhibiting strength but will decline. Euro/dollar ratio of 1.42/1 is level to watch. Eurozone countries may struggle with budget deficit negotiations this summer. Oil still forecasted for $100 by summer. Oliver likes to review daily, weekly, monthly time frames to form an opinion about the market. Oliver announces that hedge will be taken off, leaving 40% exposure to portfolio. (mp3)

Vince points out that a trader style and an investor style are different. He warns to be careful about mixing the two styles. Most advisors are not directly pulling the levers on their trades. Specialization without communication with other specialists restricts your focus and may miss the “big picture”. In reviewing some portfolios, Vince is seeing products which are not appropriate for them. This decade will be about government debt which will create volatility in the markets. Downgrades are coming. Oliver tosses out wheat as having a good year in 2010. Wheat spikes with inflation on the horizon. Could take several years to take advantage of total rise. Sugar prices are still showing positive supply/demand. Semiconductors are doing well. Banks will need to make new high for market to make new high. (mp3)